Venus Field ESIA Submitted: What This January 2026 Milestone Means for Namibia's First Oil

The ESIA Submission: Key Facts

What Is an ESIA — and Why Does It Matter for Investors?

An Environmental and Social Impact Assessment (ESIA) is a mandatory regulatory requirement for major industrial projects in Namibia. Before any offshore development can proceed to Final Investment Decision, the project must obtain an Environmental Clearance Certificate (ECC) from the Ministry of Environment, Forestry and Tourism.

For investors tracking Venus FID timing, the ESIA matters because it sits directly on the critical path. Without an ECC, TotalEnergies cannot make the Final Investment Decision — no matter how favourable the project economics. The January 12, 2026 submission effectively starts the regulatory clock for ministerial review.

What an ESIA Contains

A project ESIA of this scale typically runs to thousands of pages and covers:

• • Project description: Full technical description of the development — FPSO specifications, subsea systems, well count, operational parameters
• • Baseline environmental conditions: Seabed ecology, water column chemistry, marine mammal populations, fisheries, oceanography in the project area
• • Impact identification: All potential environmental and social impacts during construction, operations, and decommissioning
• • Impact assessment: Magnitude, likelihood, duration, and reversibility of each identified impact
• • Mitigation measures: How each significant impact will be avoided, reduced, or managed — forming the Environmental and Social Management Plan (ESMP)
• • Socio-economic assessment: Jobs, local procurement, community benefits, and economic projections including the N$593–888 billion oil export value estimate
• • Stakeholder consultation records: Documentation of all public consultation processes conducted

Public Consultations: A Multi-Year Process

Before submitting the ESIA, TotalEnergies and its partners conducted extensive public consultation rounds across Namibia — a legal requirement ensuring affected communities and stakeholders have input into the environmental assessment.

Consultation Timeline

The geographic spread of the November 2025 consultations — from Lüderitz and Oranjemund on the southern coast to Windhoek (the capital) and Walvis Bay (the main port) — reflects both the direct impact zone and the broader national interest in a project of this economic significance.

N$593–888 Billion: The Economic Projection

One of the most striking figures in the Venus ESIA is its economic assessment: oil exports from the Venus field are projected to generate between N$593 billion and N$888 billion over the project's lifetime. At current exchange rates, this represents approximately US$32–48 billion.

To contextualise this figure: Namibia's current GDP is approximately N$250 billion (roughly US$14 billion) per year. The lower end of the Venus oil export projection (N$593 billion) represents more than two full years of Namibia's current economic output.

It is important to note that the headline N$593–888 billion figure represents total oil export value — not direct government revenue. Government revenue is received through royalties, levies, and taxes over the production life of the field, with the largest revenue stream (petroleum income tax) only commencing after development costs are recovered. For a detailed breakdown of Namibia's revenue timeline, see: Namibia First Oil 2029–2030: Complete Timeline.

Venus Development: What the ESIA Describes

The Venus ESIA covers the full development concept as currently envisioned. Key elements:

FPSO Vessel

The Venus development will use a Floating Production Storage and Offloading (FPSO) vessel — a large ship moored to the seabed that processes oil from subsea wells, stores it onboard, and offloads to crude export tankers. The planned production capacity is approximately 150,000 barrels of oil per day.

The FPSO will be positioned at approximately 3,000 metres water depth, approximately 320 kilometres southwest of Lüderitz — placing it well beyond the visible horizon from shore. At this depth, fixed platforms are not technically or economically feasible; FPSOs are the standard deepwater development solution globally.

Subsea Wells

The development plan includes up to 40 subsea wells drilled from the seabed. These wells will be connected to the FPSO by subsea flowlines, manifolds, and risers — all installed on the seabed. At 3,000 metres water depth, all wellheads are on the ocean floor and operated remotely.

Associated Gas Handling

Venus contains significant quantities of associated gas alongside the oil. Gas handling strategy is a key complexity of the development: options include gas reinjection (to maintain reservoir pressure and avoid flaring), conversion to LNG for export, or piping to shore for domestic use. The ESIA's gas management plan will need to align with Namibia's environmental standards and commitments on gas flaring.

Construction and Operations Timeline

• • Construction phase: Approximately 5 years from FID to first oil — vessel fabrication, subsea installation, well drilling
• • Operations phase: Approximately 20+ years of production at plateau and declining rates
• • Decommissioning: ESIA addresses end-of-life decommissioning obligations (typically the operator's responsibility)

What Happens Next: The Path from ESIA to FID

The ESIA submission is a prerequisite for FID — but it is not the final step. The following must occur before TotalEnergies can take the Final Investment Decision on Venus:

Risks and Uncertainties Around the ESIA Process

The ESIA submission is a significant milestone, but the pathway from submission to ECC approval carries its own uncertainties:

• Review timeline: Namibian regulatory authorities have not published formal review timelines for Venus. Delays in ministerial review could push ECC issuance past the window required for 2026 FID.
• Conditions of approval: The ECC may be issued with conditions that require additional mitigation measures, environmental monitoring programmes, or operational constraints that affect project economics.
• Regulatory approval concerns: In February 2026, Namibia flagged approval concerns related to TotalEnergies' acquisition of Mopane operatorship from Galp. While this relates to a corporate transaction rather than the ESIA itself, it illustrates that regulatory processes in Namibia require careful navigation.
• Parallel cost negotiations: Even with ECC in hand, FID cannot proceed until TotalEnergies and the Namibian government reach agreement on fiscal terms. These negotiations are ongoing and their resolution timeline is uncertain.

Why the ESIA Submission Matters to the Investment Community

For investors tracking Namibia's oil development, the January 12, 2026 ESIA submission is a material milestone for several reasons:

• It confirms the 2026 FID timeline is active: TotalEnergies would not invest the substantial resources required to prepare and submit a full ESIA unless it genuinely intended to seek FID in 2026. The submission demonstrates committed project progress.
• It puts the regulatory clock on the record: The submission date is now public, creating a reference point for measuring review timelines and tracking delays.
• It documents the economic case: The N$593–888 billion oil export projection in the ESIA provides a publicly accessible economic assessment basis that analysts and investors can reference.
• It marks the end of pre-regulatory risk: Prior to ESIA submission, there was uncertainty about whether TotalEnergies would proceed with the development concept at all. Submission signals development intent.

For the broader Namibia offshore investment thesis, Venus' ESIA submission is also a marker of basin maturity. When FPSOs move from exploration concept to environmental assessment, the basin has crossed a threshold from frontier discovery into active development planning. This matters for the valuation of all nearby acreage in the Orange Basin and adjacent basins. For a broader view of what first oil means for Namibia, see: Namibia First Oil 2029–2030: Complete Timeline.

Bottom Line

The submission of the Venus ESIA to Namibian authorities on January 12, 2026 is one of the most significant regulatory steps in Namibia's oil development journey to date. Following a multi-year consultation process — including a second round of public consultations across six Namibian towns in November 2025 — TotalEnergies has placed the full environmental assessment before the relevant ministries for review.

The N$593–888 billion oil export projection in the ESIA underlines the scale of what is at stake for Namibia. The ECC decision — expected in the coming months — is the next critical milestone. If approved, it clears the path for cost negotiations to conclude and TotalEnergies to take its landmark 2026 FID.

That FID, if taken, will be the starting gun for approximately five years of construction — with first oil from Venus targeted for 2029–2030 and a combined production target of 350,000 barrels per day from Venus and Mopane by 2030–2032 under TotalEnergies' golden province multi-FPSO strategy.