Namibia First Oil 2029-2030: The Complete Timeline

First Oil Target: 2029-2030

Namibia officials have stated that the country expects first offshore oil production around 2029-2030. This timeline is based on TotalEnergies' Venus field progressing toward Final Investment Decision in Q4 2026, followed by approximately 5 years of construction and development.

Venus: Most Likely First Producer

TotalEnergies' Venus field (~5.1 billion barrels) is the frontrunner to deliver Namibia's first oil. The project is progressing through regulatory approvals with a Q4 2026 FID target. If approved on schedule:

• • Q4 2026: Final Investment Decision
• • 2027-2031: FPSO construction, subsea installation, well drilling (5 years)
• • 2029-2030: First oil production
• • Production Target: 160,000 barrels per day at peak

FPSO Infrastructure: Floating Production Platform

Namibia's deepwater oil developments will utilize FPSO (Floating Production Storage and Offloading) technology. An FPSO is a floating vessel that processes oil from subsea wells, stores it onboard, and offloads to tanker ships for export.

Why FPSO for Namibia?

• • Water Depth: Offshore discoveries at 2,000-3,000 meters too deep for fixed platforms
• • No Pipelines: Namibia has no existing offshore oil infrastructure
• • Export Flexibility: FPSOs allow direct crude loading to tankers
• • Proven Technology: Used globally in deepwater fields (Brazil, West Africa, Gulf of Mexico)

Venus FPSO Specifications

TotalEnergies' Venus development plan includes:

• • Up to 40 subsea wells drilled from seabed
• • FPSO vessel with 160,000 bpd processing capacity
• • Storage capacity for crude export via shuttle tankers
• • Gas handling systems (Venus has significant gas content)

Namibia's Discovered Resources: 11+ Billion Barrels

According to Namibia's national oil company NAMCOR, offshore discoveries total approximately 11+ billion barrels of oil equivalent across multiple fields:

These discoveries establish Namibia as a significant emerging oil province, comparable to recent frontier successes like Guyana.

Economic Impact: Government Revenue Timeline

While first oil may occur 2029-2030, substantial government revenue comes later. According to Venus project assessments:

• • 2029-2030: First oil production begins
• • 2030-2034: Operators recover development costs (estimated $15B for Venus)
• • ~2035: Significant government revenue begins (5 years post-first oil)
• • Initial Revenue: 5% royalty + 1.5% export levy
• • Full Revenue: 35% petroleum income tax once costs recovered (4-6 years)

Total government revenue from Venus over 25 years is estimated at N$127-229 billion, potentially reaching 20%+ of total government revenue once fully operational.

Infrastructure Development Requirements

Becoming an oil producer requires substantial infrastructure investment beyond the FPSO:

Onshore Requirements

• • Supply Bases: Port facilities for offshore logistics (Walvis Bay primary location)
• • Warehousing: Storage for equipment, spare parts, chemicals
• • Helicopter Facilities: Crew transport to FPSOs
• • Accommodation: Housing for expatriate and local workforce

Offshore Requirements

• • FPSO vessel(s) with processing and storage capacity
• • Subsea production systems (wellheads, manifolds, flowlines)
• • Shuttle tankers for crude export
• • Service vessels for operations and maintenance

Comparison: Namibia vs Guyana Oil Boom

Namibia's path to production mirrors Guyana's recent success, though with some differences:

For more on this comparison, see our analysis: Namibia vs Guyana Oil Boom: Which Offers Better Returns?

Risks to 2029-2030 Timeline

While 2029-2030 is the target, several factors could delay first oil:

• • FID Delays: If Venus FID slips past Q4 2026, first oil timeline extends accordingly
• • Cost Challenges: TotalEnergies needs sub-$20/barrel costs; negotiations ongoing with Namibia government
• • Regulatory Approvals: Environmental clearance and permitting processes
• • Supply Chain: FPSO vessel availability, fabrication yard capacity
• • Market Conditions: Oil price volatility affects project economics

What First Oil Means for Namibia

Achieving first oil will transform Namibia from exploration frontier to oil-producing nation:

Economic Transformation

• • Oil revenue becomes significant government income source (by ~2035)
• • GDP growth accelerates from oil sector contribution
• • Infrastructure development (ports, roads, facilities)
• • Currency strength from oil exports

Employment and Training

• • Direct employment in oil operations
• • Service industry jobs (logistics, catering, transport)
• • Training programs for Namibian workforce
• • Local content requirements creating business opportunities

Regional Positioning

• • Namibia joins African oil producers (Nigeria, Angola, Ghana)
• • Attracts continued exploration investment
• • Establishes reputation as stable, investable jurisdiction
• • Potential hub for regional offshore oil services

Bottom Line: 2029-2030 Achievable but Not Guaranteed

Namibia's 2029-2030 first oil target is achievable if TotalEnergies' Venus field reaches FID in Q4 2026 as planned. The 5-year development timeline aligns with industry norms for deepwater FPSO projects. Venus is the most likely first producer given its advanced status compared to Shell's Graff (facing technical challenges) or Mopane (earlier in appraisal).

However, first oil depends on successful navigation of cost negotiations (sub-$20/barrel target), regulatory approvals, and project execution. Any significant delays in Venus FID or construction could push first oil into 2031 or beyond.

For investors and industry observers, the Q4 2026 Venus FID decision is the critical milestone to watch. Approval triggers the countdown to Namibia's transformation from frontier explorer to oil-producing nation. For more on Venus FID timeline, see our coverage: TotalEnergies Venus FID 2026: Q4 Decision Timeline.