TotalEnergies Venus FID: Q4 2026 Decision Timeline

FID Timeline: Q4 2026 Target

TotalEnergies is on track for a Q4 2026 Final Investment Decision on its Venus field, according to Namibian government officials. This timeline follows submission of the development plan in mid-2025 and the Environmental and Social Impact Assessment (ESIA) in January 2026.

The Venus Discovery: 5.1 Billion Barrels

Venus is one of Namibia's largest offshore oil discoveries, containing approximately 5.1 billion barrels of oil equivalent. The field was discovered in the Orange Basin and represents a cornerstone of Namibia's emergence as an oil-producing nation.

Partnership Structure

TotalEnergies operates Venus with an 80% working interest, while Impact Oil & Gas holds the remaining 20%. Additionally, Galp Energia recently acquired a 10% stake in Venus as part of an asset swap deal (see our coverage on Galp-TotalEnergies asset swap).

Development Plan: 40 Wells and FPSO

TotalEnergies submitted its ESIA in January 2026, outlining plans to drill up to 40 subsea wells and install a Floating Production Storage and Offloading (FPSO) vessel. The development concept targets 160,000 barrels per day production capacity.

Key Infrastructure Components

• • FPSO Vessel: Floating production, storage, and offloading facility
• • Subsea Wells: Up to 40 wells drilled from the seabed
• • Production Capacity: 160,000 barrels per day target
• • Export System: Offshore crude loading to tankers

The $20/Barrel Cost Challenge

A critical factor for FID approval is achieving production costs under $20 per barrel. TotalEnergies leadership has identified this threshold as essential for project economics. However, reaching sub-$20 costs is considered "challenging" due to:

• • Geological Complexity: Significant natural gas content complicates processing
• • Extreme Depths: Deepwater operations at 2,000-3,000 meters increase costs
• • Infrastructure Requirements: FPSO and extensive subsea systems are capital-intensive
• • Gas Handling: High gas-to-oil ratios require additional processing equipment

TotalEnergies is currently negotiating with the Namibian government regarding cost-sharing arrangements to help achieve the $20/barrel target. These negotiations are ongoing and could influence the final FID timing.

FID Approval Process and Timeline

The Q4 2026 FID timeline assumes regulatory approvals proceed on schedule and cost negotiations reach favorable terms. Any delays in environmental clearance or cost agreement could push FID into 2027.

What FID Approval Means

For Namibia

Venus FID would mark Namibia's first confirmed offshore oil development, transitioning the country from exploration to production. Expected impacts include:

• • First offshore oil production 2029-2030
• • Government revenue starting ~2035 (5 years after first oil)
• • Estimated N$127-229 billion in government revenue over 25 years
• • Local content and employment opportunities
• • Infrastructure development (ports, supply bases)

For TotalEnergies

FID commits TotalEnergies to an estimated $15 billion investment in Venus development. The project adds significant production to TotalEnergies' portfolio and establishes the company as a major operator in Namibia's emerging oil province.

For Other Operators

Venus FID would validate Namibia's commercial viability and likely accelerate FID decisions for other discoveries like Shell's Graff field and the Mopane complex now operated by TotalEnergies.

Comparison: Venus vs Shell Graff

Venus is progressing more smoothly toward FID than Shell's Graff, which faced a $400M write-down in January 2025 due to technical challenges. This positions Venus as likely Namibia's first producing offshore field.

Investment Implications

For TotalEnergies Shareholders

Venus FID represents a major capital commitment ($15B estimated) but adds significant reserves to TotalEnergies' portfolio. The 2029-2030 first oil timeline means production contribution within the current decade. However, investors should note the $20/barrel cost challenge and ongoing negotiations with Namibia.

For Namibia-Focused Investors

Venus FID would be a transformative catalyst for Namibia-exposed stocks. Companies with Orange Basin acreage or service contracts could see significant re-ratings. However, direct exposure to Venus is limited to TotalEnergies and Impact Oil & Gas.

Risks to Monitor

• • Cost Overruns: Achieving sub-$20/barrel costs is "challenging"
• • FID Delay: Environmental clearance or negotiations could extend timeline
• • Gas Content: High gas-to-oil ratios complicate development
• • Market Conditions: Oil price volatility affects project economics

Bottom Line: Namibia's First Oil Countdown

TotalEnergies' Q4 2026 FID target for Venus represents the most concrete timeline for Namibia's first offshore oil production. With development plans submitted, ESIA filed, and negotiations underway, Venus is progressing toward becoming Namibia's inaugural producing field by 2029-2030.

The $20/barrel cost challenge remains critical. If TotalEnergies and Namibia reach favorable terms, FID approval in late 2026 seems achievable. Any delays in regulatory clearance or cost negotiations could push the decision into 2027, consequently delaying first oil.

For investors, Venus FID is the most significant near-term catalyst in Namibia's oil sector. Approval confirms commercial viability, triggers construction spending, and validates the broader Orange Basin opportunity. The Q4 2026 timeline provides a clear milestone to monitor.