Shell's April 2026 Namibia Drilling: What Comes After Graff?

Shell's Namibia Track Record

To understand the significance of Shell's April 2026 drilling campaign, it's essential to review what the supermajor has already accomplished in Namibia:

Shell's Namibia journey has faced challenges. In January 2025, Shell took a $400 million impairment on its PEL 39 discoveries, citing technical issues including low rock permeability, high gas content, and resource mobility challenges. Despite this setback, Shell announced plans to resume drilling with approximately 5 exploration wells starting April 2026 to gather additional data before making a final investment decision.

Why Shell is Drilling Again Despite Write-Down

Despite the $400M write-down, Shell's April 2026 drilling campaign signals continued belief in PEL 39's potential. The company is drilling approximately 5 exploration wells to gather additional data and potentially find better-quality reservoirs. Here's the rationale:

1. Multiple Prospects Identified

Seismic surveys across PEL 39 have identified multiple drilling targets beyond Graff. Shell's geological team has mapped several similar structures with the characteristic "bright spots" (seismic anomalies indicating hydrocarbons) that preceded the Graff discovery.

2. Learning from Initial Challenges

The 2025 write-down was driven by technical challenges: low rock permeability, high gas-to-oil ratios, and resource mobility issues. The 2026 drilling campaign aims to:

• • Test different geological targets with potentially better reservoir quality
• • Gather additional data on existing discoveries to assess development options
• • Identify prospects with lower gas content and higher oil quality
• • Determine if commercial development is viable before proceeding to FID

3. License Commitments

Exploration licenses in Namibia require operators to meet minimum work commitments—typically including a certain number of wells drilled. Shell's April 2026 well likely fulfills license obligations while also pursuing commercial opportunities.

4. Sunk Cost and Optionality

Shell and partner QatarEnergy have invested significantly in PEL 39 with extensive seismic and drilling programs. The April 2026 campaign represents an effort to extract maximum value from this investment by exploring additional prospects before making a final go/no-go decision on development.

What Shell is Likely Targeting

While Shell hasn't publicly disclosed the April 2026 well target, industry analysis and geological context suggest several possibilities:

The most likely scenario is a near-field exploration well testing additional reservoirs or accumulations adjacent to the proven Graff complex. This offers the best risk-reward profile: lower exploration risk due to proximity to a proven system, with high upside if successful due to infrastructure tie-back economics.

How This Impacts the Broader Namibia Story

Shell's April 2026 drilling has implications beyond PEL 39:

Validates Basin-Wide Potential

Every Shell well that encounters hydrocarbons reinforces the Orange Basin petroleum system. This reduces exploration risk for neighboring operators and increases the likelihood of future discoveries across the basin.

Attracts More Capital

Shell's sustained drilling program demonstrates that Namibia isn't a "one-hit wonder." It's a serious petroleum province attracting multi-year, multi-billion dollar investment from supermajors. This attracts additional operators, service companies, and infrastructure investment.

De-Risks Adjacent Acreage

Success in April 2026 would further de-risk blocks adjacent to PEL 39 across Namibia's offshore basins. Increased regional confidence from Shell's continued drilling program benefits all operators, from supermajors to junior explorers, by validating the broader petroleum system.

Timeline and Key Dates

Comparison: Shell vs TotalEnergies in Namibia

Shell isn't alone in Namibia. TotalEnergies operates PEL 56 with the 2.6 billion barrel Venus discovery. Here's how the two supermajors compare:

TotalEnergies' Venus discovery has progressed more smoothly toward development, while Shell faces technical challenges requiring additional drilling. Both companies demonstrate sustained commitment to Namibia's offshore potential. For our detailed comparison, see Shell vs TotalEnergies in Namibia: Which Oil Major Wins?

Investment Implications

For investors evaluating Namibia oil exposure, Shell's April 2026 drilling provides important signals:

Measured Optimism Despite Setbacks

Shell's decision to drill approximately 5 wells in April 2026 despite the $400M write-down shows continued belief in PEL 39's potential. However, investors should note this is exploration/appraisal drilling to gather more data—not confirmation of commercial development. Shell is still evaluating whether the discoveries can be economically developed.

Technical Challenges Remain

Shell's 2026 drilling program reflects both opportunity and risk. The Orange Basin clearly contains hydrocarbons, but extracting them commercially has proven more challenging than initially expected. Low permeability, high gas content, and mobility issues complicate development economics.

Frontier to Established Transition

With Shell's April drilling, Namibia transitions from "frontier exploration" to "established emerging province." This typically means:

• • Lower risk premiums for operators
• • Increased service industry capacity
• • More farm-in and M&A activity
• • Greater institutional investor interest

Timing Considerations

Success in April 2026 could catalyze valuation re-ratings across Namibia-exposed companies. However, it's important to understand the timeline:

• • Immediate (April 2026): Spud announcement, initial market reaction
• • Near-term (May-June 2026): Results announced, sector re-rates on success
• • Medium-term (2027-2028): Follow-up drilling, appraisal, potential FID for new discoveries
• • Long-term (2030+): Production from multiple fields across the basin

How to Follow the April 2026 Drilling

For investors monitoring Shell's April drilling campaign, here are the key information sources:

• Shell Namibia Press Releases: Official announcements of spud and results
• Namibia Ministry of Mines & Energy: Regulatory filings and updates
• Industry Publications: Upstream, Offshore Engineer, Energy Voice cover Namibia actively
• Market Filings: Shell's publicly traded partners (like Impact Oil & Gas) may disclose updates
• Rig Tracking: Marine traffic services can track drilling rig movement to PEL 39

Additionally, follow Stamper's Namibia Oil News page for curated updates on all major drilling campaigns, discoveries, and developments across Namibia's offshore basins.

Looking Beyond April: What's Next for Namibia

Shell's April 2026 well is part of a broader wave of activity:

• TotalEnergies: Continuing Venus appraisal and moving toward FID
• Chevron: Gemsbok-1 well on PEL 82 testing the Walvis Basin
• Galp/TotalEnergies: Mopane discovery (now farmed out to TotalEnergies) moving into appraisal
• Woodside: Exploration drilling expected on their acreage
• Rhino Resources: Multiple prospects identified on PEL 83

2026 is shaping up to be a pivotal year for Namibia's offshore oil industry. Shell's April drilling is just one piece of a much larger puzzle—but it's a highly significant piece given Shell's track record, technical capabilities, and proven acreage position.

Bottom Line: A Test of Namibia's Commercial Viability

Shell's April 2026 drilling campaign is a critical test for Namibia's Orange Basin. After a $400M write-down citing technical challenges, Shell is drilling approximately 5 wells to determine if commercial development is viable. This is not a victory lap—it's a data-gathering exercise to inform a go/no-go decision.

For investors, the key takeaway is cautious persistence. Shell hasn't abandoned Namibia despite setbacks, but neither has it committed to development. The company expects to make a final investment decision by Q4 2025 after incorporating data from the 2026 drilling program.

Success in the 2026 campaign could revive Namibia's prospects and validate the ~2 billion BOE Graff discovery as commercially developable. Failure or mixed results could lead Shell to relinquish the acreage or significantly delay development timelines. Either way, the April 2026 drilling will be decisive for understanding Namibia's true commercial potential.