Chevron Gemsbok-1 Well: Testing Namibia's Walvis Basin

The Gemsbok-1 Well: Key Facts

Chevron's Gemsbok-1 well represents one of the most significant exploration events in Namibia's Walvis Basin. While the Orange Basin to the south has captured headlines with Shell's ~2 billion BOE Graff discovery and TotalEnergies' ~2.6 billion barrel Venus find, the Walvis Basin remains relatively unexplored—despite holding similar geological potential. Chevron completed its farm-in to PEL 82 in February 2025, acquiring 80% working interest and operatorship from Custos Energy.

Why the Walvis Basin Matters

The Walvis Basin sits northeast of the prolific Orange Basin. It shares many of the same geological characteristics that made the Orange Basin successful:

• Source Rock: Aptian-aged organic-rich shales (same as Orange Basin)
• Reservoir Quality: Turbidite sandstones deposited in deepwater fans
• Seal: Marine shales providing effective top seal
• Trap: Structural and stratigraphic traps identified on 3D seismic

The key difference? The Walvis Basin has seen minimal exploration compared to its southern neighbor. This creates both risk and opportunity—risk because there are no proven discoveries, opportunity because success could open an entirely new petroleum province.

Chevron's PEL 82 Position

In February 2025, Chevron completed a farm-in agreement to acquire 80% working interest and operatorship of PEL 82 (blocks 2112B and 2212A). Partners Custos Energy and Namibia's national oil company NAMCOR each retained 10% interests. This represents Chevron's entry into Namibia's Walvis Basin exploration play.

What Gemsbok-1 Would Prove

A successful Gemsbok-1 well would be transformative for the Walvis Basin. Here's the geological significance:

1. Proves the Petroleum System

The most critical question in any frontier basin is: "Does a working petroleum system exist?" This requires four elements to align:

• Source Rock: Organic-rich rocks that generated hydrocarbons
• Migration: Pathways for oil/gas to move from source to reservoir
• Reservoir: Porous rock that can hold hydrocarbons
• Trap & Seal: Structure to trap hydrocarbons and prevent escape

A Gemsbok-1 discovery would prove all four elements work in the Walvis Basin, dramatically reducing exploration risk for the entire basin and validating it as a potential petroleum province.

2. Opens the Walvis Basin

Exploration drilling is expensive—deepwater wells in Namibia cost $30-50 million each. A successful Gemsbok-1 would:

• • Prove the Walvis Basin can produce commercial hydrocarbons
• • Attract additional operators and investment to neighboring blocks
• • Trigger follow-up drilling by Chevron (potentially 3-4 additional wells)
• • Validate seismic interpretations and geological models for the basin

3. De-Risks Regional Acreage

A Gemsbok-1 success would de-risk other Walvis Basin exploration blocks held by various operators, potentially triggering increased M&A activity and farm-in deals across the basin as companies seek exposure to the newly validated play.

Timeline and Next Steps

Comparison: Walvis Basin vs Orange Basin

Investment Considerations

For investors and industry observers watching Gemsbok-1, here are the potential scenarios:

Upside Scenario: Commercial Discovery

• • Gemsbok-1 discovers commercial hydrocarbons in 2026-2027
• • Walvis Basin becomes "the next Orange Basin" narrative
• • Chevron proceeds with appraisal program (3-4 wells late 2027-2028)
• • Other operators accelerate Walvis Basin acreage acquisition
• • Farm-in activity increases across neighboring blocks
• • Potential FID by Chevron in 2029-2030 timeframe

Base Case Scenario: Encouraging But Sub-Commercial

• • Gemsbok-1 shows oil presence but quality/volume unclear
• • Proves petroleum system exists but requires more data
• • Chevron evaluates whether to drill appraisal well
• • Follow-up drilling required to prove commerciality
• • Timeline extends to 2028-2029 for final decision

Downside Scenario: Dry Hole

• • Gemsbok-1 encounters no commercial hydrocarbons
• • Walvis Basin remains frontier with elevated exploration risk
• • Chevron may relinquish or significantly reduce PEL 82 program
• • Regional exploration activity slows pending new data
• • Other Walvis Basin blocks remain undrilled longer

How This Fits Into Namibia's Bigger Picture

The Gemsbok-1 well is part of Namibia's rapid transformation into a major oil province. To understand the context:

• 2022: Shell discovers Graff (3B barrels) in Orange Basin
• 2023: TotalEnergies discovers Venus (2.6B barrels)
• 2024-2025: Multiple appraisal campaigns prove up resources
• 2025: Shell reaches FID for Graff development
• 2026: Exploration expands to Walvis Basin (Gemsbok-1) and other frontier areas
• 2029: Shell's Graff field targets first oil
• 2030: TotalEnergies' Venus field targets first oil

The Gemsbok-1 well represents the next frontier—moving beyond the proven Orange Basin into adjacent, geologically similar but unexplored territory. Success here could add another 5-10 billion barrels to Namibia's resource base.

For more context on Namibia's oil development, see our analysis on when Namibia will start producing oil and which companies are involved in Namibia's oil sector.

Bottom Line: Why Gemsbok-1 Matters

Chevron's Gemsbok-1 well is more than just another exploration well—it's a test of whether Namibia's oil potential extends beyond the Orange Basin into the Walvis Basin. With Chevron holding 80% and operatorship of PEL 82, the supermajor has committed significant capital and technical resources to this frontier test.

A successful well validates the Walvis Basin petroleum system and could trigger Chevron's follow-up drilling program of 3-4 additional wells. A dry hole would be disappointing but wouldn't entirely eliminate the basin's potential—it would simply mean more data and different targets are needed.

For industry observers and Namibia-focused investors, Gemsbok-1 is a binary catalyst for the Walvis Basin. Success opens a new petroleum province. Failure keeps it firmly in the frontier category. Either way, Chevron's willingness to drill provides critical data that will shape Namibia's exploration strategy for years to come.