When Will Namibia Produce Oil? Complete Timeline 2026-2030
First oil is coming—but when exactly? Your definitive guide to production timelines, FID (Final Investment Decision) dates, infrastructure milestones, and expected volumes from Shell, TotalEnergies, Galp, and emerging operators.
The short answer: First oil from Namibia will flow between late 2029 and early 2030. The longer answer involves understanding FID timelines, FPSO construction, regulatory approvals, and infrastructure development across multiple projects.
This timeline matters for investors because stock prices move on milestones—not just discoveries. Knowing when FIDs, production starts, and ramp-ups happen gives you an edge.
Position Before First Oil Production
Stamper Oil & Gas is positioned across multiple blocks expecting first production 2029-2030. Early investors capture pre-production valuation upside.
REQUEST INVESTOR PACKAGE →The Master Timeline: 2026-2035
2026 (Current Year) - Appraisal & Planning
- • Shell, TotalEnergies, Galp drilling appraisal wells
- • Front-End Engineering Design (FEED) studies underway
- • Environmental Impact Assessments submitted
- • Walvis Bay port expansion construction continues
2027 - Final Investment Decisions (FID)
- • Q1-Q2 2027: Shell FID for Graff/La Rona development
- • Q3 2027: TotalEnergies FID for Venus
- • Q4 2027: Galp FID for Mopane (Phase 1)
- • FPSO construction contracts awarded (~$2B per FPSO)
2028 - Infrastructure Build-Out
- • FPSO hulls under construction (Singapore, South Korea)
- • Subsea equipment manufacturing (Norway, UK)
- • Walvis Bay oil terminal construction begins
- • Development drilling starts (12-24 wells per field)
2029 - First Oil! 🎯
- • Q4 2029: Shell's first FPSO arrives, first oil expected
- • Initial production: ~80,000-100,000 bbl/day (Shell)
- • TotalEnergies FPSO installation underway
- • Galp completing development drilling
2030 - Production Ramp-Up
- • Q2 2030: TotalEnergies first oil from Venus
- • Q4 2030: Galp first oil from Mopane
- • Total Namibia production: 250,000-350,000 bbl/day
- • Shell ramps to full capacity: 150,000+ bbl/day
2031-2035 - Expansion Phase
- • Second FPSOs for each operator (Phase 2 developments)
- • Walvis Basin projects reach FID
- • Target: 750,000-1,000,000 bbl/day by 2035
- • Namibia becomes top-10 African producer
Project-by-Project Breakdown
Shell - Graff/La Rona Development
Blocks: PEL 39, PEL 82
Expected FID: Q1-Q2 2027
First Oil: Q4 2029
Peak Production: 150,000-200,000 bbl/day (Phase 1)
Development Cost: $5-7 billion
Shell's project is the most advanced. They've drilled 4+ appraisal wells and are finalizing FEED studies. The company has publicly stated they're targeting FID in 2027 with first oil "early next decade" (2029-2030).
Why Shell Goes First: They have the most data, the most capital, and the most experience with deepwater FPSOs. Shell's Brazil deepwater projects provide a blueprint.
TotalEnergies - Venus Development
Block: PEL 56
Expected FID: Q3 2027
First Oil: Q2 2030
Peak Production: 100,000-150,000 bbl/day
Development Cost: $4-6 billion
TotalEnergies is 6-9 months behind Shell but moving fast. Their partnership with QatarEnergy (30% stake) provides financial firepower and LNG expertise if gas monetization is required.
Galp - Mopane Development
Block: PEL 83
Expected FID: Q4 2027
First Oil: Q4 2030
Peak Production: 200,000+ bbl/day (potentially largest)
Development Cost: $8-10 billion
Mopane is massive—potentially 10+ billion barrels. But Galp is smaller than Shell/TotalEnergies, so they may need to farm down (sell stakes) to fund development. This could delay FID slightly but reduces Galp's capital burden.
What Could Delay First Oil?
Risk #1: FPSO Construction Delays
FPSOs take 3-4 years to build. Global demand is high (Brazil, Guyana, Suriname all ordering). If shipyards are backlogged, first oil could slip to 2031.
Mitigation: Operators are pre-ordering FPSOs even before FID.
Risk #2: Regulatory Approvals
Environmental groups have challenged offshore drilling. While Namibia's government is pro-development, lawsuits could delay permits by 12-18 months.
Mitigation: Operators are working closely with government to streamline approvals.
Risk #3: Oil Price Collapse
If Brent crude falls below $60/barrel for an extended period, operators may delay FID. Namibian deepwater needs $50-60/bbl to be economic.
Mitigation: Current prices ($75-85/bbl) provide cushion.
Production Forecasts by Year
| Year | Daily Production (bbl/day) | Key Milestones |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0 | Appraisal drilling, FEED studies |
| 2027 | 0 | FIDs, FPSO orders |
| 2028 | 0 | Development drilling, construction |
| 2029 | 50,000-80,000 | Shell first oil (Q4) |
| 2030 | 250,000-350,000 | TotalEnergies + Galp first oil |
| 2031 | 450,000-550,000 | Shell/Total ramp to peak |
| 2035 | 750,000-1,000,000 | Phase 2 FPSOs, Walvis Basin |
How This Compares to Other Frontier Markets
| Country | Discovery Year | First Oil | Time to Production |
|---|---|---|---|
| Guyana | 2015 | 2019 | 4 years |
| Brazil Pre-Salt | 2006 | 2010 | 4 years |
| Ghana (Jubilee) | 2007 | 2010 | 3 years |
| Namibia | 2022 | 2029 | 7 years |
Why is Namibia taking longer?
- Deeper water (2,000-3,000m vs Guyana's 1,500-2,000m)
- No existing infrastructure (Guyana had some from previous attempts)
- More cautious operators post-COVID oil price crash
- Larger fields requiring more appraisal drilling
Investment Timing: When to Buy
Buy Now (2026) - Maximum Upside
Why: FID announcements (2027) will drive 50-100% gains. You're buying 3 years before first oil.
Risk: Delays, dry holes in appraisal drilling, oil price crashes.
Best for: High-risk portfolios with 5+ year horizon.
Buy at FID (2027) - Moderate Upside
Why: Production is confirmed. First oil de-risked. Still 2+ years of upside before production.
Risk: Construction delays, cost overruns.
Best for: Moderate-risk portfolios.
Buy at First Oil (2029-2030) - Lowest Risk
Why: Production flowing, cash flow visible, fundamentals clear.
Risk: Most upside already captured. Stocks have likely tripled from 2026 levels.
Best for: Conservative portfolios, dividend seekers.
The Bottom Line: First Oil Is 3-4 Years Away
Namibia's first oil will flow in late 2029, with full ramp-up by 2031. Here's what matters:
- 2027 FIDs are the next major catalyst—watch for announcements
- Shell goes first—their timeline sets the pace for others
- By 2035, Namibia could produce 1M bbl/day—becoming a top-10 African producer
- Early investors (2026-2027) capture the most upside
If you're investing in Namibia oil stocks, your timeline matters. Buy too early and you tie up capital for years. Buy too late and you miss 90% of the gains.
The sweet spot? Now through Q1 2027—before FIDs are announced but after most exploration risk is retired.
Continue Reading
Early Positioning for 2029-2030 Production
Stamper Oil & Gas offers exposure to projects targeting first oil in 2029-2030. Request our investor package for production timelines and valuation models.
REQUEST INVESTOR PACKAGE →