Shell vs TotalEnergies in Namibia: Which Oil Major Wins?
Two petroleum giants. Two massive discoveries. One winner? Shell's Graff (3B barrels, 2029 first oil) vs TotalEnergies' Venus (2.6B barrels, 2030 target). We compare resource size, partners, development timelines, and which offers better investment exposure.
Shell and TotalEnergies—two of the world's largest oil companies—are locked in a race to bring Namibia's first oil to market. Both made world-class discoveries in 2022. Both are spending billions on development. But which one is the better bet for investors?
Let's break down the head-to-head comparison across 10 critical factors: resource size, discovery timeline, partners, block locations, development plans, FID timing, production schedules, costs, investment exposure, and ultimate winner.
Exposure to Both Shell AND TotalEnergies Discoveries
Stamper Oil & Gas holds strategic positions across blocks adjacent to both Shell's Graff and TotalEnergies' Venus. Diversified exposure reduces single-operator risk while capturing upside from both developments.
GET DETAILED INVESTOR INFORMATION →The Contenders: Quick Overview
Shell
Royal Dutch Shell plc
• Discovery: Graff (Feb 2022) + La Rona
• Block: PEL 39
• Resources: 3-4 billion barrels BOIP
• Ownership: 90% Shell, 10% NAMCOR
• First Oil: Q4 2029 (target)
• Investment: ~$5-7 billion
TotalEnergies
TotalEnergies SE
• Discovery: Venus (Feb 2022)
• Block: PEL 56
• Resources: 2.6 billion barrels BOIP
• Ownership: 40% Total, 30% QatarEnergy, 20% Impact, 10% NAMCOR
• First Oil: 2030 (target)
• Investment: ~$4-6 billion
Round 1: Resource Size (Who Found More Oil?)
Oil in Place Comparison
🏆 Winner: Shell (+15-54% more oil)
Shell's Graff/La Rona complex is 400 million - 1.4 billion barrels larger than Venus.
Why this matters: Larger resource = longer production life, better economics, more revenue. Shell's 3-4B barrels could support 100,000-150,000 bbl/day for 20+ years.
Round 2: Discovery Timeline (Who Got There First?)
Discovery Chronology
Shell announces Graff discovery
First major Namibia offshore oil find. 2,000m water depth.
TotalEnergies announces Venus discovery
Same month! Both announced within weeks of each other.
Shell drills La Rona (appraisal)
Confirms Graff extends farther north. Adds ~500M barrels.
TotalEnergies completes appraisal program
3 appraisal wells drilled. Venus-2, Venus-3 confirm resources.
🤝 Winner: TIE (Both Feb 2022)
Remarkably, both supermajors announced their discoveries within the same month, proving the Orange Basin's prospectivity.
Round 3: Partnership Structure (Who Has Better Partners?)
Shell - PEL 39
Pros:
- ✅ Simple structure (2 partners)
- ✅ Shell controls 90% (fast decisions)
- ✅ Shell has deep pockets ($30B cash)
Cons:
- ❌ No farm-in opportunities
- ❌ High carry burden for Shell
TotalEnergies - PEL 56
Pros:
- ✅ Risk shared (4 partners)
- ✅ QatarEnergy deep pockets
- ✅ Impact provides investor exposure
Cons:
- ❌ More partners = slower decisions
- ❌ Total only 40% (less control)
🏆 Winner: TotalEnergies (for investors)
While Shell's simple structure allows faster decision-making, TotalEnergies' multi-partner consortium provides better retail investor access through Impact Oil & Gas (ASX/TSX-listed, 20% stake). Shell's 90% ownership makes it difficult for smaller investors to gain direct exposure.
Round 4: Block Location (Who Has the Better Real Estate?)
Orange Basin Block Comparison
Shell - PEL 39
- • Location: Northern Orange Basin (offshore Luderitz)
- • Water depth: 2,000-2,500m
- • Block size: 8,215 km²
- • Distance to shore: ~270 km
- • Nearby infrastructure: Walvis Bay port (450km north)
- • Geology: Aptian/Albian reservoirs (proven play)
TotalEnergies - PEL 56
- • Location: Central Orange Basin (offshore Orange River)
- • Water depth: 2,900-3,000m (deeper)
- • Block size: 8,125 km²
- • Distance to shore: ~290 km
- • Nearby infrastructure: None (greenfield)
- • Geology: Aptian reservoirs (same as Shell)
🏆 Winner: Shell (slightly)
Shell's PEL 39 is in shallower water (2,000m vs 2,900m), reducing drilling costs. Both blocks are world-class, but Shell's location offers modest cost advantages.
Round 5: Development Plans (Who's Building What?)
Shell - Graff Development
Phase 1 (2029):
- • 1 FPSO (100,000-150,000 bbl/day)
- • 12-18 development wells
- • Subsea infrastructure
- • Walvis Bay logistics base
Phase 2 (2032+):
- • Additional FPSO (possible)
- • La Rona field development
- • Peak: 200,000+ bbl/day
Investment: $5-7 billion (Phase 1)
TotalEnergies - Venus Development
Phase 1 (2030):
- • 1 FPSO (80,000-120,000 bbl/day)
- • 10-15 development wells
- • Subsea architecture
- • Possible Walvis Bay support
Phase 2 (2033+):
- • Potential 2nd FPSO
- • Tie-back to nearby prospects
- • Peak: 150,000-180,000 bbl/day
Investment: $4-6 billion (Phase 1)
🏆 Winner: Shell (scale + speed)
Shell's larger resource supports higher initial production (150K vs 120K bbl/day) and targeting Q4 2029 first oil—up to 12 months ahead of TotalEnergies.
Round 6: FID Timing (Who Pulls the Trigger First?)
Final Investment Decision Timeline
Q2-Q3 2027 (Expected)
Shell targeting mid-2027 FID. FEED studies ongoing. Environmental approvals in progress. Likely announcement: May-August 2027.
Q3-Q4 2027 (Expected)
TotalEnergies targeting late 2027 FID. Partner alignment needed (4 parties vs Shell's 2). Likely announcement: September-December 2027.
🏆 Winner: Shell (3-6 months faster)
Shell's simpler partnership structure (90% operator) allows faster decision-making vs TotalEnergies' 4-partner consortium.
Why FID timing matters for investors: FID announcements typically drive 50-150% stock price rallies for junior partners. Shell's earlier FID = earlier catalyst for affiliated companies.
Round 7: Production Schedule (Who Produces Oil First?)
• FID: Q2-Q3 2027
• FPSO construction: 2027-2029 (30 months)
• First oil: November-December 2029
• Ramp-up: 100K bbl/day by Q1 2030, 150K by Q2 2030
• Peak production: 200K+ bbl/day (Phase 2, 2032+)
• FID: Q3-Q4 2027
• FPSO construction: 2027-2030 (30-36 months)
• First oil: Mid-2030 (Q2-Q3)
• Ramp-up: 80K bbl/day by Q4 2030, 120K by Q1 2031
• Peak production: 150-180K bbl/day (Phase 1+2, 2033+)
🏆 Winner: Shell (6-9 months earlier)
Shell's Q4 2029 target beats TotalEnergies' mid-2030 timeline by 6-9 months. For investors, this means Shell-affiliated companies will generate cash flow sooner.
Round 8: Development Costs (Who Spends Less?)
| Cost Category | Shell (Graff) | TotalEnergies (Venus) |
|---|---|---|
| FPSO (construction + lease) | $2.5-3.5B | $2.0-3.0B |
| Subsea equipment | $1.5-2.0B | $1.2-1.8B |
| Development drilling | $1.0-1.5B (15 wells) | $0.8-1.2B (12 wells) |
| Infrastructure (Walvis Bay) | $0.5-0.8B | $0.4-0.6B |
| Total Phase 1 | $5.5-7.8B | $4.4-6.6B |
| Cost per barrel (BOIP) | $1.65-$2.30/bbl | $1.69-$2.54/bbl |
🏆 Winner: TIE (Both ~$2/bbl development cost)
While TotalEnergies' absolute cost is lower ($4.4-6.6B vs $5.5-7.8B), cost per barrel is nearly identical. Both projects are economically robust at current oil prices.
Round 9: Investor Exposure (Which Is Easier to Invest In?)
Shell - PEL 39 Exposure
Direct Ownership:
- ✅ Shell plc (NYSE: SHEL) - 90%
- ✅ NAMCOR (not publicly traded) - 10%
Investment Options:
- • Buy Shell stock (large cap, dividend)
- • Adjacent block holders (not direct)
Verdict:
Limited retail investor access. Shell is a safe blue-chip, but Graff is <5% of Shell's total enterprise value.
TotalEnergies - PEL 56 Exposure
Direct Ownership:
- ✅ TotalEnergies (EPA: TTE) - 40%
- ✅ QatarEnergy (not traded) - 30%
- ✅ Impact Oil & Gas (ASX: IPT) - 20% ⭐
- ✅ NAMCOR (not traded) - 10%
Investment Options:
- • Buy TotalEnergies (large cap)
- • Impact Oil & Gas (pure-play exposure) ⭐⭐
Verdict:
Better retail access via Impact Oil & Gas (20% stake). Venus is a significant portion of Impact's valuation.
🏆 Winner: TotalEnergies (via Impact Oil & Gas)
Impact Oil & Gas (ASX: IPT) provides direct, leveraged exposure to Venus (20% stake). For investors seeking pure-play Namibia exposure, TotalEnergies' partnership structure is superior.
Round 10: Risk Profile (Which Project Is Safer?)
Risk Comparison Matrix
| Risk Factor | Shell | TotalEnergies |
|---|---|---|
| Resource risk | Low (3B+ proven) | Low (2.6B proven) |
| Operator experience | Very High ⭐ | Very High ⭐ |
| Financial strength | Shell: $30B cash | Total+Qatar: $35B+ cash |
| Political risk | Low (Namibia stable) | Low (Namibia stable) |
| Execution risk | Low-Med (deepwater) | Medium (deeper water) |
| Partner risk | Very Low (2 partners) | Low-Med (4 partners) |
🏆 Winner: Shell (marginally lower risk)
Shell's shallower water (2,000m vs 2,900m) and simpler partnership structure give it a slight edge in execution risk. Both projects are low-risk by industry standards.
Final Verdict: Shell or TotalEnergies?
Scorecard Summary
🐚 Shell: 6 Wins
- ✅ Resource size (+15-54%)
- ✅ Block location (shallower)
- ✅ Development scale
- ✅ FID timing (3-6 mo faster)
- ✅ Production timing (6-9 mo earlier)
- ✅ Risk profile (marginally lower)
⚡ TotalEnergies: 2 Wins
- ✅ Partnership structure (for investors)
- ✅ Investor exposure (Impact Oil & Gas)
🏆 OVERALL WINNER: Shell (By Technical Merit)
Shell's Graff/La Rona wins on most technical and commercial factors: larger resource, faster timeline, higher production, lower risk. For operators and project economics, Shell is superior.
BUT: TotalEnergies Wins for Retail Investors
If you're a retail investor seeking pure-play Namibia exposure, TotalEnergies' partnership with Impact Oil & Gas (20% stake) offers better access than Shell's 90% controlled structure.
The Smartest Play: Own Both
Why choose? The real winner is diversification:
Diversified Namibia Strategy
- ✅ Reduce single-operator risk: What if Shell's FPSO is delayed? What if TotalEnergies faces partner disputes?
- ✅ Capture multiple FID catalysts: Shell FID (mid-2027) + TotalEnergies FID (late 2027) = two major rallies
- ✅ Dual production streams: First oil 2029 (Shell) + 2030 (TotalEnergies) = sustained cash flow
- ✅ Basin-wide exposure: Shell in north Orange Basin, TotalEnergies in central = geographic diversification
How to get exposure to both:
- Buy shares in companies with carried interests across multiple blocks (adjacent to both Shell and TotalEnergies)
- Invest in Namibia-focused baskets that include multiple operators
- Consider Impact Oil & Gas (TotalEnergies exposure) + adjacent Shell block holders
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Don't Choose: Get Exposure to Both Shell AND TotalEnergies
Stamper Oil & Gas holds strategic positions across blocks adjacent to both Shell's Graff and TotalEnergies' Venus developments. Diversified exposure to Namibia's two largest discoveries with carried interests minimizing dilution.
GET DETAILED INVESTOR INFORMATION →