ReconAfrica Kavango Q1 2026: Testing Namibia's Onshore Oil

Q1 2026 Production Test: What's Happening

ReconAfrica completed drilling Kavango West-1X in November 2025 to 4,200 meters depth. The well encountered approximately 400 meters of gross hydrocarbon section in the Otavi carbonate formation. Wireline logs confirmed 64 net meters of hydrocarbon pay, with an additional 61 meters of hydrocarbon shows in deeper sections where natural fractures may enhance deliverability.

The Discovery: 400 Meters of Hydrocarbons

The Kavango West-1X well results represent an encouraging hydrocarbon discovery in Namibia's onshore Kavango Basin:

• • Gross Hydrocarbon Section: ~400 meters total
• • Net Pay: 64 meters confirmed by wireline logs
• • Additional Shows: 61 meters in deeper zones with natural fractures
• • Formation: Otavi carbonate (naturally fractured reservoir)
• • Depth: 4,200 meters total depth

What is "Net Pay"?

Net pay refers to the thickness of reservoir rock containing hydrocarbons with sufficient porosity and permeability to produce commercially. The 64 meters of confirmed net pay at Kavango West-1X is a positive indicator, though production testing is required to determine actual flow rates and commerciality.

Production Test Method: 8-Horizon TCP

ReconAfrica will use Tubing-Conveyed Perforations (TCP) to test up to 8 distinct horizons (zones) within the hydrocarbon-bearing section. This testing approach allows the company to:

• • Test multiple zones individually to assess productivity
• • Determine flow rates from each horizon
• • Evaluate reservoir pressure and fluid characteristics
• • Identify which zones have the best commercial potential
• • Gather data for development planning

The test is expected to run for approximately one month in Q1 2026. Results will determine whether the Kavango Basin can produce hydrocarbons under commercially viable conditions.

Onshore vs Offshore: The Cost Advantage

While Namibia's offshore deepwater discoveries contain billions of barrels, onshore development offers significant cost advantages:

Onshore discoveries are typically smaller but offer faster, cheaper development paths. If Kavango proves commercial, ReconAfrica could potentially produce oil years before offshore fields like Venus come online.

The Kavango Basin: Unexplored Frontier

The Kavango Basin in northeastern Namibia is one of Africa's most underexplored onshore sedimentary basins. Key characteristics:

• • Location: Northeastern Namibia, extends into Botswana
• • Size: Large sedimentary basin with thick sequences
• • Geology: Carbonate and clastic reservoirs
• • Exploration History: Minimal previous drilling
• • Natural Fractures: May enhance reservoir deliverability

ReconAfrica is pioneering exploration in this basin. Success at Kavango West-1X could open an entirely new petroleum play in Namibia, complementing the offshore boom.

Partnership Structure: ReconAfrica 70%

ReconAfrica operates PEL 73 with a 70% working interest. Partnership breakdown:

• • ReconAfrica: 70% (operator)
• • BW Energy: 20% (Norwegian offshore producer)
• • NAMCOR: 10% carried interest (Namibia national oil company)

BW Energy's participation validates ReconAfrica's technical work. As an established producer with deepwater experience, BW Energy brings operational expertise and capital to support development if the production test proves commercial.

Next Steps: Decision Timeline

ReconAfrica expects to reach a commercial decision point by the end of 2026 based on production test results. If successful, next steps could include an appraisal well, additional seismic surveys, and development concept design.

Potential Scenarios

Success Case: Commercial Flow Rates

• • Production test demonstrates sustained commercial flow rates
• • ReconAfrica proceeds with appraisal drilling to delineate resource size
• • Development concept advances (potentially 2027-2028 timeline)
• • Kavango Basin opens as new onshore petroleum play
• • Could produce oil before offshore fields (faster development)

Mixed Results: Sub-Commercial but Encouraging

• • Test shows hydrocarbons but flow rates below commercial threshold
• • ReconAfrica evaluates whether different zones or completion methods could improve results
• • Additional testing or drilling required before commercial decision
• • Timeline extends into 2027 for clarity

Downside: Non-Commercial

• • Production test shows insufficient flow rates for commercial development
• • ReconAfrica may test alternative targets or relinquish acreage
• • Kavango Basin remains frontier requiring more technical work
• • Focus shifts to other exploration opportunities

Why Onshore Matters for Namibia

While offshore discoveries dominate attention, successful onshore development offers Namibia distinct advantages:

• • Diversification: Reduces dependence on offshore megaprojects
• • Faster Development: Onshore fields can produce in 1-3 years vs 5-7 for offshore
• • Lower Entry Cost: Smaller companies can participate (onshore drilling cheaper)
• • Local Content: Easier to employ Namibian workforce onshore vs offshore
• • Multiple Plays: Different geological targets spread risk

If ReconAfrica's test succeeds, it validates an alternative development path complementary to the offshore giants operated by Shell and TotalEnergies.

Investment Considerations

For ReconAfrica Shareholders

The Q1 2026 production test is a binary catalyst. Successful test results confirming commercial flow rates would significantly de-risk the Kavango Basin and potentially trigger a share price re-rating. However, failure or sub-commercial results could lead to share price declines as the investment thesis weakens.

For Namibia-Focused Investors

ReconAfrica's test provides data on Namibia's onshore potential. Success validates onshore as a viable play, potentially attracting other operators to acquire Kavango Basin acreage. This diversifies Namibia's petroleum story beyond the offshore-only narrative.

Bottom Line: Q1 2026 Test is Critical

ReconAfrica's Q1 2026 production test at Kavango West-1X is Namibia's first onshore oil production test. The 400-meter hydrocarbon section with 64 meters of net pay is encouraging, but commercial viability depends entirely on whether the formation can flow oil at sustained commercial rates.

The 8-horizon TCP test over approximately one month will provide critical data on reservoir productivity. Success would open Namibia's onshore Kavango Basin as a new petroleum play with faster, cheaper development timelines than offshore. Failure or sub-commercial results would keep the basin firmly in the frontier exploration category.

For investors watching Namibia's oil emergence, ReconAfrica's test represents a different risk-reward profile than offshore megaprojects. Lower capital intensity, faster timelines, and 70% operator ownership provide leveraged exposure—but also higher binary risk. Q1 2026 test results will be decisive.