Namibia First Oil Production Date: When Will Namibia Produce Oil?

The Official Answer: 2029-2030

Namibia's government has been consistent on the timeline. The country's petroleum commissioner confirmed in multiple public statements that first oil production from the offshore discoveries is expected in the 2029-2030 window. TotalEnergies' deputy CFO has also stated publicly that the Venus project is targeting first oil in 2030, with the Final Investment Decision (FID) expected in mid-to-late 2026.

That timeline hinges on one project above all others: the Venus field on PEL 56 in the Orange Basin, operated by TotalEnergies with QatarEnergy, Galp, Impact Oil and Gas, and NAMCOR as partners. Venus is the most advanced of Namibia's deepwater discoveries in terms of development planning, and its FID is the single most important event on Namibia's energy calendar between now and 2030.

TotalEnergies Venus: The Project That Defines the Timeline

Venus was discovered by TotalEnergies in February 2022, making it the discovery that put Namibia on the global oil map. The field is located approximately 290 kilometres west of the Namibian coast in water depths of around 3,000 metres. Estimated recoverable resources range from approximately 2 billion barrels upward.

The development concept is a large ultra-deepwater FPSO with a design capacity of approximately 150,000 to 180,000 barrels of oil per day in its first phase. TotalEnergies plans to re-inject associated gas rather than market it, given the extreme water depth and the distance from shore, which make gas export infrastructure uneconomic at this stage. Hanwha Ocean has emerged as the frontrunner to supply the FPSO vessel, with competitive proposals ahead of rival bidders.

If all four conditions are met by Q4 2026, the subsequent FPSO construction and installation phase would take approximately three to four years, placing first oil firmly in the 2029 to 2030 window.

Namibia Oil Production Timeline: Year by Year

Galp Mopane: The Second Wave

While Venus defines the 2029-2030 first oil window, Galp's Mopane field represents the second wave of Namibian production. Mopane is one of the largest oil discoveries in decades globally, with multiple appraisal wells completed through 2024 and contingent resources of 700 million barrels (3C). Some estimates for total Mopane resource size run significantly higher.

TotalEnergies completed a farm-in to the Mopane project from Galp in late 2025, with Custos Energy and NAMCOR also holding interests. First production from Mopane is estimated for 2031 to 2032, making it a second-wave project that would substantially increase Namibia's total output after Venus reaches plateau production.

The 500,000 Barrel Per Day Target by 2035

Looking beyond the initial first oil milestone, Namcor's chief executive has stated publicly that Namibia could reach 500,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day by 2035 through the deployment of four FPSO vessels across multiple projects. At that production level, Namibia would displace Egypt to become Africa's fifth-largest oil producer.

The 2035 target assumes production from at least two major FPSO projects (Venus and Mopane), likely a third development from the broader Orange Basin acreage, and continued exploration success in both the Orange Basin and the Walvis Basin to the north. The Walvis Basin, where Chevron is drilling the Gemsbok-1X well on PEL 82 in the second half of 2026, is positioned as the next basin to open after the Orange Basin.

What About Shell's PEL 39?

Shell remains active in Namibia despite writing down $400 million on its PEL 39 discoveries in January 2025. The company is drilling Koekoemor-1X on PEL 39 from April 2026 using the Deepsea Mira rig. The write-down reflected technical challenges with the Graff, La Rona and Jonker discoveries including low rock permeability, high gas content and resource mobility issues, not a lack of oil in the ground.

Shell's new drilling targets different structures on PEL 39, seeking reservoirs with better flow characteristics than the existing discoveries. A successful result from Koekoemor-1X would reopen the question of PEL 39 commerciality and could add a third major Orange Basin project to Namibia's production pipeline. For a full analysis, read our detailed breakdown of Shell's PEL 39 and the Koekoemor-1X well.

What Needs to Happen Between Now and 2030

What This Means for Exploration Investors in 2026

For investors in Namibia's exploration sector, the 2029-2030 first oil date is important context for understanding the current investment window. The gap between now (2026) and first oil (2029-2030) is where exploration companies positioned in adjacent acreage can generate significant value through farm-outs, seismic campaigns, and exploration success before the development majors dominate the conversation.

History from other frontier basins shows that the period between major discovery confirmation and first production is typically when exploration pure-plays see their greatest re-rating. Companies holding acreage adjacent to confirmed discoveries, or in basins being opened by upcoming wells, are positioned at the most leveraged point in the cycle.

Stamper Oil & Gas (TSXV: STMP) holds five exploration blocks across the Orange, Walvis and Lüderitz basins, including a 32.9% working interest in PEL 107 in the Orange Basin adjacent to TotalEnergies' Venus and Galp's Mopane discoveries, and carried interests in PEL 106 and PEL 98 in the Walvis Basin adjacent to Chevron's PEL 82. For more on the broader Namibia investment case, read our analysis of Namibia's multi-billion barrel resource base.

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