FID Timeline Namibia Oil Projects: Complete Schedule 2027-2028
$20+ billion in Final Investment Decisions coming 2027-2028. TotalEnergies Venus (Q1 2027), Shell Graff (Q2-Q3 2027), Galp Mopane (2028). Complete FID timeline with exact dates, capital requirements, production schedules, and why these decisions matter for investors.
FID (Final Investment Decision) is the most important milestone in oil & gas development. It's the moment when operators commit billions to turn discoveries into producing assets. For Namibia, 2027-2028 will see 3-4 major FIDs totaling $20B+ in capital commitments.
📅 Quick FID Timeline
FID Catalysts Drive Adjacent Block Valuations
When TotalEnergies and Shell announce FIDs, adjacent acreage holders typically see 50-150% stock price increases. Stamper holds working interest on PEL 107 (adjacent to Venus) and carried interests across Walvis/Luderitz—positioned to benefit from multiple FID catalysts.
GET OFFSHORE NAMIBIA INVESTOR INFORMATION →What is FID (Final Investment Decision)?
Understanding FID
FID is the board-level decision to commit capital to develop an oil & gas project. It triggers:
- Signing of FPSO construction contracts ($2-4B)
- Ordering subsea equipment ($1-3B)
- Committing to drilling development wells ($1-2B)
- Building onshore logistics infrastructure ($0.5-1B)
- Hiring operations teams (100-500 people)
Once FID is taken, the project is "go." There's no turning back. First oil follows 3-5 years later.
Why FID Matters for Investors
Direct Benefits
- • De-risks adjacent blocks: Proves commercial viability
- • Confirms infrastructure: FPSOs can tie back nearby discoveries
- • Validates economics: Oil price assumptions, costs confirmed
- • Attracts capital: Investors flock to producing basins
Stock Price Impact
- • Operators: 10-30% increase on FID announcement
- • Partners: 30-80% increase (junior companies)
- • Adjacent holders: 50-150% increase (de-risking effect)
- • Basin peers: 20-50% increase (sector rotation)
Project 1: TotalEnergies Venus (Q1-Q2 2027 FID)
TotalEnergies Venus
First Namibia FID • First Production • $5-6B Development
Project Details
- • Operator: TotalEnergies (40%)
- • Partners: QatarEnergy (30%), Impact (20%), NAMCOR (10%)
- • Block: PEL 56 (Orange Basin)
- • Resources: 2.6 billion barrels BOIP
- • Recoverable: 600-800 million barrels
Development Plan
- • Phase 1 Capex: $5-6 billion
- • FPSO: 1 unit (100,000-120,000 bbl/day)
- • Development wells: 12-15 wells
- • Subsea trees: 12+ units
- • Logistics base: Walvis Bay
FID Timeline & Milestones
Q4 2024: Appraisal Complete
Venus-3X successful. Resource confirmed at 2.6B bbls.
Q1 2025: FEED Initiated
Front-End Engineering Design underway. FPSO design selected.
Q4 2025 - Q1 2026: Environmental Approvals
Namibian government EIA process. Expected approval Q1 2026.
Q1-Q2 2027: FID TARGET
TotalEnergies board approval. Expected March-June 2027.
2030: First Oil
Target: Q2-Q3 2030. Ramp-up to 100,000 bbl/day by Q4 2030.
Investment Catalyst Impact
Expected stock price reactions on FID:
- • TotalEnergies (EPA: TTE): +5-10% (large cap, already priced in)
- • Impact Oil & Gas (ASX: IPT): +50-100% (20% stake, pure-play exposure)
- • Adjacent PEL 107 holders: +50-150% (de-risking effect)
- • Namibia sector: +20-40% (sector rotation, capital inflows)
Project 2: Shell Graff/La Rona (Q2-Q3 2027 FID)
Shell Graff/La Rona
First Production 2029 • Largest Initial Production • $6-8B Development
Project Details
- • Operator: Shell (90%)
- • Partners: NAMCOR (10%)
- • Block: PEL 39 (Orange Basin)
- • Resources: 3-4 billion barrels BOIP
- • Recoverable: 800-1,000 million barrels
Development Plan
- • Phase 1 Capex: $6-8 billion
- • FPSO: 1 unit (150,000+ bbl/day)
- • Development wells: 15-18 wells
- • Subsea infrastructure: Extended network
- • Logistics base: Walvis Bay (shared with Total)
FID Timeline & Milestones
Q4 2023: La Rona Discovery
Confirmed Graff extends north. Combined 3-4B bbls.
2024-2025: FEED & Concept Selection
Shell selected FPSO contractor. Engineering 80% complete.
Q1 2026: Environmental Approval
Shell fast-tracking EIA. Approval expected Q1 2026.
Q2-Q3 2027: FID TARGET
Shell board approval. Expected May-August 2027.
Q4 2029: First Oil
Target: November-December 2029. Namibia's FIRST producing field.
Why Graff FID Matters Most
- • First to produce: Graff first oil 2029 (6 months ahead of Venus)
- • Largest initial production: 150K bbl/day vs Venus 100K
- • Infrastructure catalyst: Walvis Bay becomes Namibia's oil hub
- • Proof of concept: Validates deepwater Namibia economics
Project 3: Galp Mopane (Q4 2027 - Q2 2028 FID)
Galp Mopane
Largest Namibia Project • 10B+ Barrels • $10-15B Multi-Phase Development
Project Details
- • Operator: Galp Energia (80%)
- • Partners: NAMCOR (10%), Custos (10%)
- • Block: PEL 83 (Orange Basin)
- • Resources: 10+ billion barrels BOIP
- • Recoverable: 2.5-3.5 billion barrels (phased)
Development Plan (Multi-Phase)
- • Phase 1 Capex: $6-8 billion
- • Phase 2 Capex: $4-7 billion
- • FPSOs: 2-3 units (200,000+ bbl/day peak)
- • Development wells: 30-50 wells (phased)
- • Timeline: FID1 2028, FID2 2032+
FID Timeline & Milestones
Jan 2024: Mopane Discovery
10+ billion barrels announced. Largest Namibia discovery.
2024: Appraisal Campaign (5 wells)
All successful. Confirmed 10B+ bbls. Excellent reservoir quality.
2025-2026: FEED & Concept Selection
Galp evaluating phased development. 2-3 FPSOs over 10+ years.
2026-2027: Farm-Out Discussions
Galp may farm-down to 40-50% to share capital burden. Supermajor interest high.
Q4 2027 - Q2 2028: PHASE 1 FID TARGET
First phase FID. $6-8B capex. 100,000-120,000 bbl/day initial.
2031-2032: First Oil (Phase 1)
Ramp-up to 100K+ bbl/day. Phase 2 FID likely follows 2032-2033.
Why Mopane is a Game-Changer
- • Scale: 10B+ bbls = 3-4x larger than Venus/Graff combined
- • Multi-decade production: 20-30 year project life
- • Infrastructure anchor: Justifies major port/logistics investment
- • Tier-back hub: Nearby discoveries can tie-back to Mopane infrastructure
FID Timeline Summary: 2027-2028
| Project | Operator | FID Date | Capex | First Oil | Peak Production |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Venus | TotalEnergies | Q1-Q2 2027 | $5-6B | 2030 | 100-120K bbl/day |
| Graff/La Rona | Shell | Q2-Q3 2027 | $6-8B | Q4 2029 | 150K+ bbl/day |
| Mopane (Ph 1) | Galp | Q4 2027 - Q2 2028 | $6-8B | 2031-2032 | 100-120K bbl/day |
| TOTAL | 3 operators | 2027-2028 | $17-22B | 2029-2032 | 350-400K bbl/day |
What FIDs Mean for Adjacent Acreage
De-Risking Effect: How FIDs Unlock Value
1. Geological De-Risking
FID confirms reservoir quality, oil type, recovery rates. Adjacent blocks with similar geology are instantly de-risked.
2. Infrastructure Value
FPSOs can process 150K-200K bbl/day. Nearby discoveries can tie-back, reducing their development costs by 50-70%.
3. Commercial Proof
FID validates economics at current oil prices. Banks, investors gain confidence. Financing adjacent projects becomes easier.
4. Farm-In Activity
Supermajors seek adjacent acreage after FID. Junior explorers can farm-out at higher valuations (2-5x pre-FID).
Example: After TotalEnergies Venus FID, expect adjacent PEL 107 holders to see 50-150% stock price increases as the block is instantly de-risked.
Investment Strategy: Playing the FID Catalysts
Strategy 1: Hold Before FID (High Risk/High Reward)
Buy before FID announcement. Capture 50-150% gain when FID happens. But risk if FID delayed or cancelled.
Best for: Adjacent acreage holders (e.g., PEL 107 adjacent to Venus). Not direct operators.
Strategy 2: Buy on FID Announcement (Lower Risk)
Wait for FID press release. Buy same day. Ride 20-50% increase over next 3-6 months as market digests implications.
Best for: Conservative investors. Miss initial spike but capture post-FID momentum.
Strategy 3: Diversified Basket (Balanced)
Hold positions across multiple operators and adjacent blocks. Capture multiple FID catalysts 2027-2028.
Best for: Portfolio approach. Reduces single-company risk while maintaining Namibia exposure.
FID Risk Factors: What Could Delay or Cancel?
While the FID timeline looks solid, offshore projects are notoriously prone to delays. Here are the key risks that could push FIDs beyond 2027-2028:
🔴 Risk #1: Oil Price Collapse
Threshold: If Brent crude falls below $65/barrel for 6+ months
Impact: All 3 FIDs would be delayed or cancelled. Deepwater Namibia needs $70+ oil to be economic at current cost estimates.
Probability: Low-Medium (20-30%). OPEC+ maintaining discipline, but recession risk exists.
🟠 Risk #2: Cost Inflation
Current Issue: FPSO construction costs up 40% since 2020. Subsea equipment lead times extended to 24-30 months.
Impact: Operators may delay FID to negotiate better EPC contracts or wait for industry cooling.
Probability: Medium (40-50%). Already seeing delays in Brazil/Guyana due to cost inflation.
🟡 Risk #3: Government Terms Renegotiation
Potential Issue: Namibian government could seek higher royalties or windfall taxes if oil prices spike above $100/barrel.
Impact: Operators may delay FID to lock in favorable fiscal terms.
Probability: Low (10-15%). Namibia has stable government, but resource nationalism is rising globally.
🟢 Risk #4: Environmental/Legal Challenges
Current Status: Environmental approval process smooth so far. No major opposition.
Potential Impact: Legal challenges from NGOs could delay EIA approvals by 6-12 months.
Probability: Low (5-10%). Namibia pro-development, but Shell faced legal challenges in South Africa (different jurisdiction).
📊 FID Delay Probability Matrix
| Project | Base Case FID | On-Time Probability | Delayed Scenario |
|---|---|---|---|
| Venus | Q1-Q2 2027 | 70% | Q3-Q4 2027 if delayed |
| Graff | Q2-Q3 2027 | 75% | Q4 2027 if delayed |
| Mopane | Q4 2027-Q2 2028 | 60% | H2 2028 if delayed |
*Probabilities based on historical deepwater FID timelines and Namibia-specific factors
What to Watch: FID Early Warning Signals
📡 Monitoring the FID Timeline
🟢 Positive Signals (FID On Track)
- • FPSO contractor announces construction start
- • Operator issues equipment tenders (subsea trees, pipelines)
- • Government publishes final environmental approval
- • Operator CEO mentions project in earnings calls
- • Local content contracts signed (Walvis Bay logistics)
🔴 Warning Signals (FID at Risk)
- • Extended silence from operator (no project updates for 6+ months)
- • FEED contractor announcements delayed
- • Farm-out discussions surface (operator seeking to reduce stake)
- • Management says "reviewing economics" or "assessing market conditions"
- • Competitor projects (Guyana, Brazil) get priority capital allocation
💡 Pro Tip: Follow TotalEnergies and Shell earnings calls Q4 2026 / Q1 2027. Management will signal FID confidence or concerns 2-3 months before official announcement.
Key Takeaways: FID Timeline 2027-2028
- ✅ 3 major FIDs in 18 months: Venus Q1-Q2 2027, Graff Q2-Q3 2027, Mopane Q4 2027 - Q2 2028
- ✅ $17-22B committed capital: Largest African offshore investment cycle since 2015
- ✅ First oil 2029: Shell Graff targeting November-December 2029
- ✅ 350-400K bbl/day by 2032: Namibia becomes significant African producer
- ✅ Adjacent acreage uplift: Expect 50-150% increases for de-risked blocks
- ✅ Infrastructure buildout: Walvis Bay becomes regional oil hub
- ✅ Multiple catalysts: Each FID de-risks next project, creating domino effect
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Positioned to Benefit from 3 FID Catalysts
Stamper Oil & Gas holds 32.9% working interest on PEL 107 (adjacent to TotalEnergies Venus - Q1 2027 FID) plus carried interests across Walvis and Luderitz basins. Each FID announcement de-risks our acreage and creates re-rating catalysts for investors.
GET OFFSHORE NAMIBIA INVESTOR INFORMATION →