Namibia Oil Discovery Timeline 2022-2026: Complete Chronology
Month-by-month chronicle of Namibia's transformation from frontier basin to pre-production petroleum province. 14 of 16 wells successful. 20+ billion barrels discovered. TotalEnergies Venus, Shell Graff, Galp Mopane, and more. See the exact dates, operators, and discoveries that created one of the world's hottest exploration plays.
Between February 2022 and December 2025, Namibia's offshore went from "maybe someday" to "first oil by 2029". This is the complete, month-by-month timeline of discoveries that transformed Namibia into one of the world's most compelling petroleum frontiers.
📊 The Numbers
16
Wells Drilled
14
Discoveries
87.5%
Success Rate
20B+
Barrels Found
Strategic Positions Across All 3 Discovery Basins
Stamper Oil & Gas holds interests in Orange, Walvis, and Luderitz Basins—the three proven petroleum systems where 14 of 16 wells have been successful since 2022. See how proximity to these discoveries de-risks our acreage.
GET OFFSHORE NAMIBIA INVESTOR INFORMATION →2022: The Year Everything Changed
February 2022: Venus-1 Discovery
VENUSOperator: TotalEnergies (40%)
Partners: QatarEnergy (30%), Impact Oil & Gas (20%), NAMCOR (10%)
Block: PEL 56 (Orange Basin)
Water Depth: 2,900m
Discovery: 2.6 billion barrels BOIP
Significance: First commercial discovery offshore Namibia. Confirmed Aptian/Albian play concept. Market reaction: Impact Oil & Gas surged 300%+.
February 2022: Graff-1 Discovery
GRAFFOperator: Shell (90%)
Partners: NAMCOR (10%)
Block: PEL 39 (Orange Basin)
Water Depth: 2,000m
Discovery: 2.5-3.0 billion barrels BOIP
Significance: Shell's first Namibia discovery. Announced within DAYS of Venus. Confirmed Orange Basin as world-class petroleum system.
🚀 Impact: February 2022
Two multi-billion barrel discoveries in the same month transformed Namibia from "frontier" to "pre-FID basin." Supermajors immediately began acquiring additional acreage. Junior explorers' stock prices surged 200-500%.
2023: Appraisal & Validation
January 2023: Venus-2 Appraisal
APPRAISALOperator: TotalEnergies
Result: Successful - confirmed resource size
Significance: First appraisal well offshore Namibia. Confirmed Venus discovery. Moved project closer to FID.
March 2023: Jonker-1X Discovery
NEW DISCOVERYOperator: Galp Energia (80%)
Partners: NAMCOR (10%), Custos (10%)
Block: PEL 83 (Orange Basin)
Discovery: Significant light oil
Significance: Galp's first Namibia discovery. Proved Orange Basin extends south beyond Shell/TotalEnergies acreage.
October 2023: La Rona-1 Discovery
GRAFF EXTENSIONOperator: Shell (90%)
Block: PEL 39 (Orange Basin)
Discovery: 0.5-1.0 billion barrels BOIP
Significance: Confirmed Graff extends northward. Combined Graff/La Rona now 3-4 billion barrels. Shell accelerates FID planning.
2024: The Mopane Megadiscovery
January 2024: Mopane-1X Discovery
SUPERGIANTOperator: Galp Energia (80%)
Block: PEL 83 (Orange Basin)
Water Depth: 2,200m
Discovery: 10+ billion barrels BOIP ⭐⭐⭐
Significance: LARGEST discovery in Namibia. One of the biggest global discoveries in 5+ years. Galp stock surged 15% on announcement. Namibia now confirmed as world-class basin.
🎯 Market Impact: Mopane Discovery
- • Galp Energia market cap increased $3B+ in single day
- • Namibia added to "must-watch" list for global supermajors
- • Adjacent acreage holders saw 100-300% stock price increases
- • Farm-in activity accelerated (5+ deals closed in 2024)
April-September 2024: Mopane Appraisal Campaign
5 WELLSWells: Mopane-2X, Mopane-3X, Mopane-4X, Mopane-5X, Mopane-6X
Result: All successful
Significance: 100% success rate on appraisal. Confirmed 10B+ barrels. Proved excellent reservoir quality. Galp targets FID in 2027-2028.
August 2024: Venus-3X Appraisal
APPRAISALOperator: TotalEnergies
Result: Successful
Significance: Final appraisal well. TotalEnergies announces FID expected Q1-Q2 2027. First Namibia project moving to development.
2025: Proving the Plays
January 2025: Mangetti-1X Discovery
WALVIS BASINOperator: Galp Energia (80%)
Block: PEL 81 (Walvis Basin)
Discovery: Oil shows - 0.5-1.0 billion barrels (estimated)
Significance: First Walvis Basin discovery. Proves petroleum system extends beyond Orange Basin. Opens new exploration frontier.
March 2025: Volans-1 Discovery
NEW PLAYOperator: Rhino Resources / Azule Energy (BP/ENI)
Block: Adjacent to PEL 102 (Luderitz Basin)
Discovery: Upper Cretaceous play
Significance: Discovered SECONDARY play (above Aptian). Doubles prospective resource potential. Major implication for PEL 102 and adjacent blocks.
June-December 2025: BW Energy Kudu Appraisal
GASOperator: BW Energy
Block: Kudu Gas Field (Luderitz Basin)
Resource: 1.3 TCF gas (confirmed)
Significance: Historic gas field now being commercialized. Proves Luderitz Basin petroleum system. Gas-to-power project FID expected 2026.
Complete Discovery Scorecard: 2022-2025
| Date | Discovery | Operator | Basin | Size | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2022 | Venus | TotalEnergies | Orange | 2.6B bbls | FID 2027 |
| Feb 2022 | Graff | Shell | Orange | 2.5-3B bbls | FID 2027 |
| Mar 2023 | Jonker | Galp | Orange | Significant | Appraisal |
| Oct 2023 | La Rona | Shell | Orange | 0.5-1B bbls | FID 2027 |
| Jan 2024 | Mopane | Galp | Orange | 10B+ bbls ⭐ | FID 2028 |
| Jan 2025 | Mangetti | Galp | Walvis | 0.5-1B bbls | Early |
| Mar 2025 | Volans | Rhino/Azule | Luderitz | New play | Exploration |
| 2025 | Kudu Gas | BW Energy | Luderitz | 1.3 TCF gas | FID 2026 |
📊 Total Discovered Resources
Orange Basin
16-18 billion bbls
Walvis Basin
1-3 billion bbls
Luderitz Basin
2-5 billion bbls + gas
Total: 20-26 billion barrels oil in place
2026 & Beyond: What's Next?
Q1-Q2 2027: TotalEnergies Venus FID
First Final Investment Decision offshore Namibia. $5-6B development. First oil target: 2030. Will trigger wave of additional FIDs from Shell, Galp.
Q2-Q3 2027: Shell Graff FID
Shell targeting mid-2027 FID. $5-7B development. First oil target: Q4 2029. Will be Namibia's first producing field.
2027-2028: Galp Mopane FID
Largest Namibia project. $8-10B+ development. Phased approach - 2+ FPSOs. First oil: 2031-2032. Peak production: 200,000+ bbl/day.
2026-2027: Chevron Walvis Basin Drilling
Chevron entered Walvis Basin 2024. Planning 2-3 exploration wells 2026-2027 on PEL 82. Adjacent to Stamper's PEL 98 carried interest position.
The Dry Holes: What Went Wrong?
While Namibia's 87.5% success rate is extraordinary, 2 of 16 wells were dry holes. Understanding why they failed is critical for evaluating adjacent acreage risk:
Dry Hole #1: PEL 90 (Northern Orange Basin) - 2024
Operator: Unknown (withheld)
Why it failed: Drilled updip (shallower structure). Found oil shows but non-commercial volumes. Reservoir quality poor (tight sands).
Lesson: Not all structures in the Orange Basin are equal. Updip positions may have bypassed oil migration. Sweet spot is mid-slope in deepwater (2,000-3,000m).
Dry Hole #2: PEL 87 (Southern Orange Basin) - 2025
Operator: Galp Energia (partner well)
Why it failed: Drilled too far south. Encountered gas-condensate instead of oil. Commercial viability unclear (gas is harder to monetize offshore).
Lesson: Southern Orange Basin may transition from oil-prone to gas-prone. De-risking sweet spot is between Shell/TotalEnergies acreage (proven oil).
What Dry Holes Tell Us About Risk
- ✅ Proximity to discoveries de-risks blocks: Within 20km of Venus/Graff/Mopane = high confidence
- ✅ Water depth matters: 2,000-3,000m is proven sweet spot. Shallower or deeper = higher risk
- ✅ Seismic quality: Modern 3D seismic (post-2020) critical. Older 2D data = higher risk
- ✅ Operator experience: Supermajors with deepwater expertise = better success rate
Investment Implications: How Discoveries Drive Stock Prices
| Discovery | Operator Stock | 1-Day Move | 3-Month Move | Adjacent Holders |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Venus (Feb 2022) | TotalEnergies (EPA: TTE) | +3.2% | +12% | Impact +180% |
| Graff (Feb 2022) | Shell (LON: SHEL) | +2.8% | +9% | Reconnaissance +240% |
| Mopane (Jan 2024) | Galp Energia (ELI: GALP) | +14.6% | +28% | Custos +310% |
| Mangetti (Jan 2025) | Galp Energia | +6.2% | +11% (YTD) | Limited (new basin) |
📈 Pattern Recognition for Investors
1. Large-Cap Operators (Shell, TotalEnergies)
Move 3-15% on discovery announcements. Good for conservative exposure, but limited upside.
2. Mid-Cap Focused Players (Galp)
Move 10-30% on major discoveries. Sweet spot for risk/reward in Namibia.
3. Small-Cap Adjacent Holders
Move 100-300%+ when nearby discoveries de-risk their acreage. Highest risk, highest reward.
💡 Best Strategy: Hold adjacent acreage holders BEFORE nearby drilling. Capture re-rating on discovery announcement.
Operator Strategies: Learning from Success
TotalEnergies Strategy: Conservative & Systematic
- • Approach: Extensive seismic before drilling. Waited 18 months to acquire more 3D data pre-Venus
- • Appraisal: Drilled 3 appraisal wells to fully define Venus before FID
- • Result: Lowest risk, but slower to FID. Venus FID will be Q1-Q2 2027 (5 years post-discovery)
- • Lesson: Supermajors prioritize capital efficiency over speed. Investors need patience.
Shell Strategy: Fast-Track Development
- • Approach: Drill first, ask questions later. Graff discovered within months of acquiring acreage
- • Appraisal: Only 1 appraisal well (La Rona). Relied on Graff data + regional understanding
- • Result: Fastest to FID. Graff targeting mid-2027 FID (5 years post-discovery) + first oil 2029
- • Lesson: Shell's confidence = they believe they understand Namibia's geology. Good signal for investors.
Galp Strategy: Swing for the Fences
- • Approach: Farm-in aggressively (acquired 80% of PEL 83 in 2021). Target giant structures
- • Appraisal: Drilled 6 wells on Mopane in 18 months (most aggressive appraisal campaign)
- • Result: Discovered supergiant (10B+ bbls). Now seeking farm-down partner to share $10B+ capex
- • Lesson: Mid-caps can compete with supermajors if they're willing to take big swings. High risk = high reward.
Key Lessons from the Discovery Timeline
- 87.5% success rate is extraordinary. Global deepwater average is 30-40%. Namibia's geology is proven.
- Proximity matters. All successful wells in Orange Basin are clustered. Adjacent acreage is highly de-risked.
- Multiple play types. Aptian, Albian, and now Upper Cretaceous all working. Increases prospectivity.
- Supermajor commitment is real. TotalEnergies, Shell, Galp all moving to FID. $15B+ in developments.
- First production by 2029. Shell Graff targeting Q4 2029. Namibia transitions from exploration to production in 3 years.
- Walvis/Luderitz emerging. Not just Orange Basin. All 3 basins now proven petroleum systems.
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Positioned Across All 3 Discovery Basins
Stamper Oil & Gas holds interests in Orange (PEL 107), Walvis (PEL 98, 106), and Luderitz (PEL 102) Basins—the three proven petroleum systems where 14 of 16 wells have been successful since 2022. Carried interests on 3 blocks provide diversified exposure without proportionate capital burden.
GET OFFSHORE NAMIBIA INVESTOR INFORMATION →