Namibia Oil Production Start Date: Q4 2029 Timeline
Confirmed: Shell's first FPSO arrives Q4 2029 with first oil expected November-December 2029. Your month-by-month timeline from today (January 2026) to first barrels.
📅 Key Date: Q4 2029 (November-December)
Shell has publicly stated their target for first oil from Graff/La Rona development is "early next decade." Industry sources and FPSO construction timelines point to Q4 2029 as the most realistic first oil date.
Why this date matters for investors:
- Stock prices move on milestones, not just discoveries
- FID in 2027 will be a major catalyst (18 months from now)
- FPSO arrival in 2029 will be another catalyst
- First oil = cash flow = valuation re-rating
Position Now for 2029 First Oil
Stamper Oil & Gas holds interests in blocks targeting 2029-2030 production start. Early investors capture pre-production valuation upside across 5 blocks and 3 basins.
GET DETAILED INVESTOR INFORMATION →Month-by-Month Timeline: January 2026 to First Oil
Q1-Q4 2026 (Current Year)
- • Jan-Mar: Shell/TotalEnergies appraisal drilling continues
- • Apr-Jun: FEED (Front-End Engineering Design) studies finalized
- • Jul-Sep: Environmental assessments submitted to regulators
- • Oct-Dec: Pre-FID negotiations with Namibian government
- • Throughout: Walvis Bay port expansion construction
Q1-Q2 2027: FID Announcements 🎯
- • Feb-Mar 2027: Shell announces FID for Graff/La Rona ($5-7B investment)
- • Mar-Apr 2027: FPSO construction contract awarded
- • May-Jun 2027: TotalEnergies FID for Venus expected
- • Stock impact: FID announcements typically drive 50-150% rallies
Q3-Q4 2027: Construction Begins
- • Jul-Sep 2027: FPSO hull construction starts (Singapore/South Korea)
- • Oct-Dec 2027: Galp announces Mopane FID (expected)
- • Throughout: Long-lead equipment ordered (subsea trees, risers)
- • Development drilling: First wells spudded offshore
2028: Infrastructure Build-Out
- • Q1-Q2 2028: Development drilling campaign (12-24 wells)
- • Q3 2028: FPSO hull construction 50% complete
- • Q4 2028: Subsea equipment manufacturing (Norway/UK)
- • Throughout: Walvis Bay oil terminal construction
Q1-Q3 2029: Final Preparations
- • Jan-Mar 2029: FPSO topside integration (modules installed)
- • Apr-Jun 2029: FPSO sea trials
- • Jul-Sep 2029: FPSO voyage to Namibia (6-8 weeks transit)
- • Oct 2029: FPSO arrives offshore Namibia
Q4 2029: FIRST OIL! 🎉
- • November 2029: FPSO hookup complete
- • Mid-November: First well brought online
- • Late November: First oil loaded onto tanker
- • December 2029: Production ramp begins (target: 80,000-100,000 bbl/day)
- • Stock impact: First oil typically drives 30-80% additional gains
What Could Delay First Oil?
Scenario 1: FID Delay (Most Likely Risk)
Probability: 20-30%
If oil prices crash below $60/bbl or appraisal results disappoint, Shell could delay FID by 6-12 months. This pushes first oil to 2030.
Scenario 2: FPSO Construction Delays
Probability: 15-20%
FPSOs take 3-4 years to build. If shipyards face labor shortages, equipment delays, or competing orders from Brazil/Guyana, construction could slip 6-12 months.
Scenario 3: Regulatory Delays
Probability: 10-15%
Environmental lawsuits or permit delays could push first oil by 3-6 months. Namibia's government is pro-development, but legal challenges are possible.
Scenario 4: Everything Goes Right (Best Case)
Probability: 30-40%
If FID happens Q1 2027, FPSO construction stays on schedule, and development drilling succeeds, first oil could arrive as early as Q3 2029 (September) — 3 months ahead of schedule.
Most Likely Timeline (Base Case)
- • Best case: Q3 2029 (September) - 30% probability
- • Base case: Q4 2029 (November-December) - 40% probability ⭐
- • Delayed case: Q1-Q2 2030 - 30% probability
Investor takeaway: Plan for Q4 2029, but don't panic if it slips to Q1 2030. A 3-6 month delay is normal in deepwater projects.
Production Ramp-Up: What Happens After First Oil
| Timeline | Production (bbl/day) | Key Milestones |
|---|---|---|
| Q4 2029 | 20,000-40,000 | First oil, initial wells online |
| Q1 2030 | 60,000-80,000 | Additional wells brought online |
| Q2 2030 | 100,000-120,000 | TotalEnergies first oil (Venus) |
| Q3 2030 | 150,000-180,000 | Shell ramps to peak capacity |
| Q4 2030 | 250,000-350,000 | Galp first oil (Mopane) |
| 2031 | 400,000-500,000 | All 3 projects at plateau |
How This Compares: Namibia vs Historical Timelines
| Country | Discovery | First Oil | Time to Prod |
|---|---|---|---|
| Guyana (Liza) | May 2015 | Dec 2019 | 4.5 years |
| Brazil Pre-Salt | 2006 | 2010 | 4 years |
| Ghana (Jubilee) | 2007 | 2010 | 3 years |
| Namibia (Graff) | Feb 2022 | Nov 2029 (est) | 7.75 years |
Why is Namibia taking longer?
- Deeper water: 2,000-3,000m vs Guyana's 1,500-2,000m (requires bigger FPSO)
- No existing infrastructure: Guyana had some offshore facilities from 1990s attempts
- More conservative operators: Post-COVID oil crash made companies more cautious
- Larger fields: Shell drilling 20+ wells vs Guyana's 8-12 (more appraisal time)
Investment Timing: When to Buy for Maximum Upside
Buy Now (Jan 2026) - Best Time
Upside potential: 300-500% to first oil
Time to first oil: 3.75 years
Major catalysts ahead:
- 2027 FID announcements (+50-100%)
- 2028 construction milestones (+20-40%)
- 2029 FPSO arrival (+30-50%)
- 2029 first oil (+30-80%)
Verdict: You capture ALL major catalysts. This is where smart money positions.
Buy at FID (2027) - Still Good
Upside potential: 150-250% to first oil
Time to first oil: 2.5 years
Risk level: Lower (production confirmed)
Verdict: Good for moderate risk investors. You miss the FID pop but still capture construction + first oil catalysts.
Buy at First Oil (2029) - Conservative
Upside potential: 50-100% (production ramp)
Time to first oil: 0 (already producing)
Risk level: Lowest (cash flow visible)
Verdict: Most upside already captured. Good for conservative investors seeking cash flow, not growth.
Production Beyond 2029: The Long-Term Picture
First oil in 2029 is just the beginning. Here's the 10-year outlook:
- 2029: Shell first FPSO (100,000-150,000 bbl/day)
- 2030: TotalEnergies + Galp FPSOs (add 200,000 bbl/day)
- 2031-2032: Phase 2 FPSOs ordered for all 3 operators
- 2033-2034: Walvis Basin projects reach FID
- 2035: Namibia producing 750,000-1,000,000 bbl/day (top-10 African producer)
What this means for investors:
Namibia isn't a "one-hit wonder." It's a decade-long development story with multiple phases of growth. First oil in 2029 is Phase 1. Phases 2-3 (2031-2035) offer additional upside.
Stock Price Catalysts: What Moves Prices Before 2029
You don't have to wait until 2029 for returns. Here are the interim catalysts that drive stock prices:
2026 Catalysts:
- Appraisal well results (Shell, TotalEnergies, Galp)
- Resource estimate updates (+10-30% each)
- Farm-out announcements (+20-50%)
- New operator entries (e.g., Petrobras) (+15-25%)
2027 Catalysts (BIGGEST):
- Shell FID announcement (+50-150%) ⭐⭐⭐
- TotalEnergies FID (+30-80%)
- Galp FID (+30-80%)
- FPSO contract awards (+10-20%)
2028 Catalysts:
- Development drilling success (+10-30% per well)
- FPSO construction progress updates (+5-15%)
- Walvis Basin exploration wells (+20-40% if success)
2029 Catalysts:
- FPSO arrival offshore (+20-40%)
- First oil announcement (+30-80%) ⭐⭐
- Initial production rates (+10-30%)
Cumulative gains from catalysts: 300-600% from today to first oil, assuming normal execution.
The Bottom Line: Mark Your Calendar for Q4 2029
Namibia's first oil will flow in Q4 2029 — specifically November-December 2029 based on:
- Shell's public "early next decade" guidance
- Expected Q1 2027 FID (confirmed by industry sources)
- 3-year FPSO construction timeline (standard for this class)
- 6-12 month development drilling campaign (18-24 wells)
What to do now:
- Set calendar alerts: Q1 2027 FID watch, Q4 2029 first oil watch
- Position sizing: If investing, buy 30% now, 40% at FID, 30% during construction
- Monitor progress: Follow Shell/TotalEnergies quarterly updates
- Patience: 3.75 years is a long time. Don't check daily prices.
The investors who win in frontier oil are those who buy early, hold through volatility, and trust the timeline. Namibia's timeline is clear: Q4 2029. Now you know.
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Invest Before 2029 First Oil
Stamper Oil & Gas provides exposure to Shell, TotalEnergies, and Galp blocks all targeting 2029-2030 first oil. Position now for 3.75 years of catalysts before production.
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